Rail fares could shoot up by 8 per cent next year

Train passengers in England will see fares rise by up to 8 per cent in 2024 if the government sets them using the same formula as this year, according to new figures.

The Department for Transport (DfT) aligned 2023’s cap on fare increases with Britain’s average earnings growth for July 2022, which was 5.9 per cent.

But figures published by the Office for National Statistics this morning show the same measure for July 2023 was 8 per cent.

If next year’s increase followed the same patterns, it would be the highest annual increase since 1996, when the country’s railways were privatised, an analysis of industry data by the PA news agency shows.

The impact of this jump in prices would see an annual season ticket from Woking to London rising by £310 to £4,190, while an off-peak return from Manchester to London would cost £112.20 following an £8.30 hike.

The DfT has previously confirmed that next year’s fare rises will be below the Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation for July – which was 9 per cent – but has not announced what formula it will use.

Norman Baker, director of external affairs at pressure group Campaign for Better Transport and former Liberal Democrat transport minister, said: “The government has yet to confirm next year’s rail increase, but if it follows the same formula as last year and uses today’s average earnings growth rate, passengers will face eye-watering increases.

“Rather than hammer rail passengers yet again, the Government should freeze rail fares – as they have done with fuel duty – until the long-promised ticketing reform takes place.”

A DfT spokeswoman said: “Following last year’s biggest ever Government intervention to cap rail fare increases well below inflation, we’ll continue to protect passengers from cost-of-living pressures and we will not increase next year’s rail fares by as much as the July RPI figure. Any increase will also be delayed until March 2024, temporarily freezing fares for passengers to travel at a lower price for the entirety of January and February as the Government continues with its plan to halve inflation.”

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