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Will the net-zero ‘flight tax’ raise family air fares by £300 in 15 years?

Brexit and beyond

“Net-zero ‘flight tax’ will raise cost of holidays”: so read the front-page splash in the latest Sunday Telegraph. The government’s own assessment, said the article, “shows the new mandate could add hundreds more pounds to tickets” – potentially £300 for a family holiday for four.

Opposition figures have deplored what they describe as the latest move from the “net-zero blob”.

Air Passenger Duty already puts up the cost of flying by a significant amount. So what is this new tax, what is it for, and whose idea is it?

Why a new tax on flying?

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Mandate (SAF Mandate) isn’t a tax. It is an order for suppliers of aviation fuel to supply a certain percentage of SAF as part of the “jet zero strategy” to reduce the impact of aviation on the environment.

Modern aircraft can happily fly without modification on a blend of kerosene (traditional aviation fuel) and SAF. Starting this month, suppliers are expected to use 2 per cent of SAF, increasing to 10 per cent in 2030 and 22 per cent by 2040.

What exactly is SAF and why is it needed?

SAF is derived from a range of sources from used cooking oil and household waste to crops grown specifically to be converted to fuel suitable for jet propulsion.

The aim is to reverse the current increase in CO2 emissions created by aviation.

The amount of carbon pumped out by engines using SAF is exactly the same as kerosene. The reduction in CO2 comes from savings over the lifecycle of the fuel. For example, growing crops takes carbon from the atmosphere, while using waste that would otherwise go to landfill reduces methane emissions.

The giant airline Emirates says SAF will “reduce carbon emissions by up to 85 per cent”. Virgin Atlantic goes for a more modest 70 per cent reduction. Richard Branson’s airline notably operated a SAF-only flight from London to New York.

But environmental campaigners dispute the predicted savings. They also say growing crops specifically to be converted to fuel damages biodiversity and causes deforestation – making it even worse than using fossil fuels.

Any other problems?

If you assume the claimed benefits of SAF are correct, the next problem is: there isn’t enough SAF around. In 2022, according to the International Air Transport Association…

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