Have holiday prices really surged by a quarter?

Travel and data are made for each other. With thousands of suppliers catering to the holiday needs of millions of customers, the more numbers the merrier. Travel firms, the media and holidaymakers can keep track of who is going where and how much they are paying.

But there are limits – and I think they may have been reached with the survey this week from the holiday price-comparison website TravelSupermarket. The headline: “Family Holiday Price Surge for Summer 2025”.

The accompanying press release said data showed “significant price increases for family holidays in 2025” and that costs to some destinations have risen “by more than a quarter” compared with last year.

The key rises for “all-inclusive seven-night family breaks for August” are:

With inflation at barely 3 per cent, those are concerning figures. The data is doubtless reliable. But what exactly do the numbers tell us? Context is important. As the firm makes clear: “The data is based on TravelSupermarket package holiday clicks between 18 April and 17 June in both 2024 and 2025.” That’s clicks, not what people paid.

Now, rational behaviour cannot be assumed of someone seriously contemplating an August visit to the UAE or Egypt: the average high in Dubai is 41C, and the Red Sea resorts are only a couple of degrees cooler. That is “unfit for human habitation” territory. However, presumably those sunseekers took one look at the prices and decided to search elsewhere, such as Tunisia, the all-inclusive budget destination for summer 2025 (average high 33C).

What puzzles me is: why are the rates in Greece and Turkey up so sharply (12 and 15 per cent respectively)? For the last few weeks, I have been looking at deals from the big holiday companies. The strong sense I get is that prices are falling.

Right now, I am looking at a package holiday from Bournemouth to Icmeler in Turkey, departing Friday, 18 July, with Tui, for an astonishing £195. And another from Gatwick to Corfu on Sunday, 20 July, for £190. That includes round-trip flights clocking up thousands of miles; checked baggage, transfers, and a self-catering apartment.

For a family of four to be able to buy a proper package holiday in Greece or Turkey in late July for under £800…