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Heathrow: the summer numbers game

Heathrow: the summer numbers game


Pilots routinely have a plan B: if their diversionary airport is closed for reasons of poor weather, air-traffic control failure or (as happened to me at Gatwick) a broken-down plane blocking the runway, their flight plan prescribes an alternate.

For Las Vegas, make for Phoenix; aiming for wind-wracked Madeira? Make it Tenerife, or Lisbon, or even back to Gatwick.

This troubled summer, passengers need a plan B, too.

Flight from Heathrow to Barcelona grounded? Which other London airport has the best alternative. And can I carry cabin baggage only, in order to be on the bus to Gatwick or Luton ahead of the pack?

I stress that the vast majority of airline travellers to and from the UK this summer need not stress: journeys will be more or less as planned, and a good summer will be had by almost all.

That is not the way readers who contacted me after Heathrow announced its ‘100k-a-day’ flight cap see it.

The chief executive of Britain’s biggest airport, John Holland-Kaye, said on Tuesday morning that airlines should cease ticket sales on summer flights from Heathrow  “to ensure passengers have a safe and reliable journey”.

A series of test bookings suggest that airlines are selling away, for now at least. But I want to focus on the numbers.

Heathrow has imposed an unprecedented limit of 100,000 departing passengers each day through the summer until 11 September.

That sounds a big number (as they say on Radio 4’s excellent More or Less) – but is it? Yes.

Many more passengers fly out of Heathrow even in such reduced circumstances than depart from any other British airport – and the other European giants at Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Istanbul and Paris CDG struggle to achieve 100,000 passengers per day.

The figure also represents somewhere above 600 flights.

Passengers queue inside the departures terminal of Terminal 2 at Heathrow Airport

(Reuters)

Crucially, though, what travellers care about is how that 100k compares with the numbers that airlines were expecting to feed through Heathrow.

And that’s where things get tricky.

Mr Holland-Kaye says: “The latest forecasts indicate that even despite the amnesty, daily departing seats over the summer will average 104,000 – giving a daily excess of 4,000 seats.

“On average only about 1,500 of these 4,000 daily seats have currently been sold to passengers, and so we are asking our airline partners to stop selling summer tickets to limit the impact on passengers.”

Yet that is not quite the full picture….

Click Here to Read the Full Original Article at The Independent Travel…