Are cheap holidays on offer because Russians can’t travel outside their country?

Proper package holidays in the middle of August for in the low £300s per person? The giant tour operator Tui is putting plenty of good deals into the market for the next couple of weeks, such as a departure on Tuesday 13 August from Newcastle to Zante for £309.

Nothing is so perishable as a plane seat that departs empty and a hotel room that remains unoccupied. Holiday companies, with commitments of aircraft and accommodation, can cut prices for late sales to whatever is needed to fill the booking void.

But I have been reading speculation online that the reason so many cheap deals are available is because Russians cannot travel outside their country. Without these often high-spending customers, the argument goes, hotels are reducing rates.

Having looked at the evidence: there are plenty of cheap holidays around this August, unusually. And there are restrictions on where organised trips from Russia can go, as well as some red tape for individual Russian travellers. But in this case, correlation is certainly not causation.

Sure, some five-star hotels in cities such as Nice, Monaco and Venice will be missing their usual complements of high-spending Russian guests. In Turkey and Cyprus, too, some hoteliers may have offered improved rates to UK holiday companies to fill otherwise empty rooms. These countries were very popular with both Russians and Ukrainians before Vladimir Putin decided to invade his neighbour, and demand has dwindled from the countries currently at war.

Yet I am also seeing good value in places such as Benidorm and Lanzarote, which were not visited by significant numbers of tourists from Russia and Ukraine before the conflict began.

The availability of cheap holidays across southern Europe, from Cyprus to the Canaries, is mainly due to a slump in demand and an excess of supply. Since the end of the pandemic, holiday prices have soared. Tempted by big profit margins, companies have piled on capacity. But growing unwillingness by the travelling public to pay outlandish prices, combined with pressure on household budgets, means buyers need to be lured by cheaper deals.

Turning to Russian tourists: many people in the West believe they have been unable to travel beyond their borders since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That is simply not true. Russian airlines are banned from most of Europe (and vice-versa). But there are…